Electronic PaymentsBlog

November 18, 2025

Holiday Shopping: Consumer Behavior in 2026 & What to Expect

Electronic Payments Team

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Small Business Tips

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The holidays are quickly approaching, and for many business owners, that means the busy season is here. To help prepare you for what’s ahead, we’ve looked at consumer insights and holiday shopping trends for 2026. 

This year, consumers are expecting to pay more, but many want value to back that up; AI has become a major part of the shopping process; and business owners can still expect good sales opportunities during Cyber Week and late-spending potential the week before Christmas.

Read on to learn what the statistics say about consumer behavior this year and what you can expect based on the data.

Spending Is Projected to Rise—Likely Due to Higher Prices

• Deloitte forecasts 4.0%–4.8% growth in holiday retail sales and 7.5%–8.4% in ecommerce sales.
• Mastercard forecasts 5.5% growth, with half of that gain explained by higher prices
• Forbes reports that 31% of shoppers expect to increase their budgets; 53% say higher costs are the reason.

Increased spending can mean that buyers are feeling more optimistic about the economy, but this year the increase may be due more to inflation and rising costs than consumer sentiment. While dollar value may increase, it may not mean buyers are purchasing significantly more than last year.

The key takeaway: Consumers are extremely aware that prices are high. While many anticipate they’ll need to spend more accordingly, you may not find yourself selling more year-over-year. Track revenue as well as units sold to account for rising costs.

Value-Seeking Behavior Is Up

• Deloitte describes value-seeking across income levels, including switching retailers and brands. 
• Forbes finds that 30% identify as value seekers; another 30% identify as memory creators, prioritizing meaningful gifts and experiences. 

As prices increase, consumers want each purchase to mean more. The cheapest option might not be the winner. Gifts that cost more but also feel more valuable or personal may be more popular this year.

AI is Influencing Shopping Decisions

• Forbes found that about two-thirds of U.S. shoppers expect AI to influence at least 30% of their holiday spending this year. 
• Top uses include deal-finding (40%), product comparison (31%), and deciding where to shop (30%).
• Mastercard’s analysis of 2025 purchases found that paid AI subscribers shopped across a wider range of merchants, including smaller and boutique businesses.

Consumers are finding products in new ways, so ecommerce approaches need to reflect it with websites set up for easy AI consumption. This may also open up opportunities for more niche businesses that may satisfy specific buyer needs in an AI query that wouldn’t be surfaced in a traditional search.

Shopping Started Early, but Spikes Still Matter

• Forbes reports nearly one in five consumers began their shopping before August.
• Substantial spending is still projected during October and Cyber Week, with 17% of November and December online spending happening between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.

Shopping occurs all season long, but it’s not too early to get started, and it’s still important to take advantage of major shopping days after Thanksgiving.

Last-Minute Shoppers Drive Important Sales

Mastercard found that shoppers who wait until the week before Christmas are most likely to shop in-person for jewelry, handbags, cosmetics, and department store items. In those categories, over a third of in-store spending occurred during the final week of the season. Christmas Eve is a big shopping day for spirits, handbags, jewelry, and video games, while Christmas Day sees online purchases spike for digital purchases and gift cards.

This shows that it’s likely never too late in the holiday season to generate revenue, especially if you sell in the categories above. Procrastinators are an important contingent of shoppers, so plan ahead for late-season promotions and messaging aimed at last-minute buyers. 

And make sure you have gift cards available online for Christmas Day purchases! Pair them with promotions to help your audience find you as a destination for late gift giving.

A Data-Driven Holiday Checklist for Retailers

We’ve rounded up recommendations based on this year’s consumer insights to help guide your holiday strategy:

• Keep your website and Google Business Profile current, including holiday hours, product information, and pickup options.
• Make product descriptions, prices, and promotions clear and easy for shoppers and AI tools to understand.
• Offer options at different price points, highlighting affordability alongside quality, convenience, and thoughtful gifting.
• Help shoppers choose with gift guides, staff recommendations, and ready-to-give bundles.
• Start marketing now if you haven’t already, and maintain momentum through December.
• Plan strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions while giving customers reasons to shop throughout the season.
• Align inventory and staffing with promotional peaks and the final holiday rush.
• Highlight the benefits of shopping locally: gifts available now, personal assistance, and no shipping costs for in-store purchases.
• Make shipping fees, delivery deadlines, pickup options, and return policies easy to find.
• Prepare for last-minute shoppers with clear availability messaging, convenient checkout, and gift cards.

Check out our Small Business Saturday guide for more holiday season tips.

Happy Holidays!

Understanding consumer habits can help you strategize, make the most of this year’s trends, and position your business for a successful holiday season. While the 2026 holiday shopping season presents some challenges for businesses, we see plenty of opportunity, too. If you’re looking for tips on optimizing your store for the holidays, check out our guide to success on Small Business Saturday!

Haven’t stocked up on gift cards yet? Get branded cards and promotion materials via eGiftSolutions!

800-966-5520 | www.electronicpayments.com